Turkey's Double Game: How Ankara Navigates Between NATO and Its Eastern Partners

The Logic of Strategic Autonomy

Turkey's foreign policy under President Erdogan has consistently pursued what Ankara describes as strategic autonomy, a principle similar in name and partially in content to India's doctrine but adapted to the specific context of a country that is formally a NATO member while maintaining substantial relationships with actors that NATO regards as adversaries.

The practical expression of this doctrine has been striking. Turkey purchased the Russian S-400 air defense system in 2017, a decision that led to its exclusion from the F-35 program and exposure to American sanctions under the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act. It maintained energy imports from Russia throughout the Ukraine conflict, becoming a significant transit point for Russian energy flows to markets seeking to circumvent sanctions. It blocked Swedish and Finnish NATO accession for eighteen months before extracting concessions on Kurdish militant organizations that both countries host.

None of these decisions is inexplicable. Each reflects a calculation of Turkish interests that is internally consistent, even if it creates significant friction with alliance partners.

The Economic Foundation of Turkish Foreign Policy

Turkey's foreign policy positioning is inseparable from its domestic economic situation. The country has experienced significant economic turbulence since 2018, including currency crises, inflation that peaked above 85 percent in late 2022, and an unorthodox approach to monetary policy that initially resisted interest rate increases despite textbook economic analysis.

The economic pressures create specific foreign policy incentives. Maintaining economic relationships with Russia, including energy imports at below-market prices and tourism revenues from Russian visitors, has material economic value for a government managing a difficult economic situation. The Istanbul hub for Russian financial transactions and the transit of certain goods avoiding Western sanctions has generated economic activity that the government has not been eager to sacrifice on principle.

The June 2023 presidential election result, which returned Erdogan to office in a runoff, demonstrated the domestic political resilience of his approach but also the constraints it faces. The new economic team appointed after the election has adopted more orthodox monetary policies, raising rates aggressively and achieving significant progress on disinflation. This normalization of economic management may create more space for a normalization of foreign policy relationships, though it would be premature to project that trajectory with confidence.

The NATO Dimension

For NATO, Turkey's behavior creates real but manageable challenges. The alliance's consensus-based decision structure gives any member a formal veto that Turkey has been willing to use. The blocking of Swedish and Finnish accession demonstrated this veto power in action, though Turkey ultimately accepted both countries' membership after extracting concessions.

The more enduring challenge is intelligence and technology sharing in a context where Turkey has acquired the Russian S-400 system. American officials have been clear that the S-400 creates risks of compromise for F-35 technology, which is why Turkey was removed from the program. The broader question of what information flows through alliance intelligence channels when Turkey's relationships with Russia are as close as they are is a concern that formal alliance structures do not easily resolve.

The counterargument is that Turkey's strategic position, controlling the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles, the critical straits between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean, gives it irreplaceable importance for the alliance that any responsible assessment of the costs and benefits of Turkish membership must acknowledge. Turkey's activation of the Montreux Convention to restrict naval passage through the straits following Russia's invasion of Ukraine demonstrated that this position can be deployed in ways that serve alliance interests.

The Regional Influence Dimension

Beyond its NATO posture, Turkey has developed a distinctive regional presence that reflects its own conception of great power status. Turkish engagement in Libya, where it supported the internationally recognized government against forces backed by UAE and Russian actors, demonstrated a willingness to project power regionally. Turkish-built Bayraktar TB2 drones have been acquired by more than 30 countries, including Ukraine, providing a commercial and geopolitical influence instrument at scale.

The relationship with the Gulf states has warmed considerably since the low point following the Khashoggi murder, with the normalization of relations with Saudi Arabia and UAE representing a recalibration of Turkish regional positioning that has economic benefits and geopolitical implications.

What to Expect in 2026

Turkey's foreign policy in 2026 will likely continue to reflect the fundamental strategic orientation of the past decade, with specific adjustments driven by economic conditions and the domestic political cycle. The ongoing normalization of monetary policy creates pressure to maintain investor confidence that constrains the most disruptive foreign policy choices. The relationship with the United States, while periodically strained, is grounded in real security interests that neither side has an incentive to permanently rupture.

The most important variable for alliance observers is whether Turkey's posture evolves toward more consistent engagement with NATO frameworks as its economic stabilization continues and the domestic political pressure of the immediate post-election period recedes. The early signals from the normalization of monetary policy suggest a government that values international credibility more than the previous period's approach implied.